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Space Launch Shortfall Expected by 2030

October 31, 2026

2 min read

Key Takeaways

Analysts forecast a 150-launch shortfall by 2030.
Shortfall attributed to Russian rockets' absence and growing demand.
Delays in new launch vehicle development also contribute.
Shortfall expected to peak in 2028.

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Strategic Implications

This forecast may indicate a significant challenge for the global space industry, suggesting that demand for satellite launches could outstrip supply. The shortfall could persist into the late 2030s, which may impact the development of satellite constellations and small-satellite startups. The situation may be eased by the introduction of new launch vehicles, such as Starship and New Glenn.

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What Happened

Global Space Industry Faces Potential 150-Launch Deficit

According to a report by Quilty Space, the global space industry may face a shortfall of approximately 150 launches by 2030, driven by factors such as the absence of Russian rockets from the Western market and growing demand from satellite operators and civil space agencies. The shortfall is expected to peak in 2028, with delays in the development of new launch vehicles, including New Glenn, Vulcan, Neutron, Terran R, and Nova, contributing to the issue. The situation was first reported by Ars Technica.

Source | Originally Published: October 31, 2026

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