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Quilty Space Sees 150-Launch Gap Through 2030

October 31, 2026

2 min read

Key Takeaways

Quilty Space estimates a 150-launch gap through 2030.
The gap affects medium- and heavy-lift launches outside China.
2028 is expected to be the worst year for the shortage.

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Strategic Implications

The launch shortfall may indicate a structural problem in the industry, with demand outpacing supply. This could lead to increased costs and delays for satellite operators and space agencies, which may have significant implications for the development of new space technologies and the growth of the space economy.

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What Happened

Launch Shortfall Expected To Impact Satellite Operators And Space Agencies

Quilty Space has estimated a gap of approximately 150 medium- and heavy-lift launches through 2030, excluding China. The firm’s analysis, reported by Tech Insider, suggests that the launch shortfall will be most acute in 2028. The gap is attributed to a combination of factors, including development delays in new rockets and the retirement of existing launch vehicles. This shortage may have significant implications for satellite operators and space agencies, which rely on access to launch services to deploy their assets. The situation was first reported by Tech Insider.

Source | Originally Published: October 31, 2026

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