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Global Airliner Fleet to Near-Double by 2045

October 21, 2026

2 min read

Key Takeaways

Global passenger capacity to grow 3.7% per annum through 2045.
Global passenger fleet to nearly double to 50,000 aircraft.
Freighter fleet to grow 64% to 3,900 aircraft.
Over 43,000 passenger aircraft deliveries expected.

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Strategic Implications

This forecast may indicate a significant increase in demand for commercial aircraft, which could benefit manufacturers like Airbus and Boeing. The supply constraints suggest that the industry may struggle to keep up with demand, which could lead to further delays and cancellations. The growth of COMAC may also signal a shift in the global market dynamics, with the Chinese manufacturer potentially becoming a major player.

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What Happened

Cirium Forecasts Strong Demand Amid Supply Constraints

According to Cirium’s annual global fleet forecast, the global passenger capacity is expected to grow at 3.7% per annum through 2045, with the global passenger fleet nearly doubling to over 50,000 aircraft. The global freighter fleet will also grow, although not as much in relative terms, by 64% to around 3,900 aircraft. The industry has not managed to close the 20% capacity gap that resulted from the COVID-19 disruption, and supply constraints are expected to slow down the global fleet buildup. The report was released by AeroTime.

Source | Originally Published: October 20, 2026

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