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Cirium Lowers 20-Year Aircraft Delivery Forecast

Key Takeaways
  • Cirium forecasts 43,000 commercial aircraft deliveries through 2045.
  • The forecast is down 3,500 units from the 2025 projection.
  • Supply chain constraints and engine availability issues are key factors.
  • The global passenger fleet is expected to reach 50,000 aircraft by 2045.
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Strategic Implications

This revised forecast may indicate a prolonged period of supply chain constraints and engine availability issues, which could impact the growth of commercial aviation. The shift towards larger single-aisle aircraft suggests a focus on efficiency and cost savings, which could benefit manufacturers like Airbus and Boeing.

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What Happened

Supply Chain Constraints Impact Commercial Aviation Growth

Cirium has lowered its 20-year commercial aircraft delivery forecast to 43,000 units through 2045, citing persistent supply chain constraints and engine availability issues. The revised forecast projects a global passenger fleet of over 50,000 aircraft by 2045, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.2%. The forecast was reported by The Aviation Hub.

Source | Originally Published: October 13, 2026

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JUMPSEAT
AEROSPACE NEWS
JUMPSEAT
AEROSPACE NEWS

Cirium Lowers 20-Year Aircraft Delivery Forecast

Sponsored by: Jumpseat Solutions
Key Takeaways
  • Cirium forecasts 43,000 commercial aircraft deliveries through 2045.
  • The forecast is down 3,500 units from the 2025 projection.
  • Supply chain constraints and engine availability issues are key factors.
  • The global passenger fleet is expected to reach 50,000 aircraft by 2045.
Sign in to view key takeaways Get full access to in-depth analysis and key takeaways.
Sign In
Silver membership required Upgrade to Silver to access Key Takeaways.
Upgrade
Strategic Implications

This revised forecast may indicate a prolonged period of supply chain constraints and engine availability issues, which could impact the growth of commercial aviation. The shift towards larger single-aisle aircraft suggests a focus on efficiency and cost savings, which could benefit manufacturers like Airbus and Boeing.

Sign in to view strategic implications Get full access to strategic analysis and expert insights.
Sign In
Silver membership required Upgrade to Silver to access Strategic Implications.
Upgrade

What Happened

Supply Chain Constraints Impact Commercial Aviation Growth

Cirium has lowered its 20-year commercial aircraft delivery forecast to 43,000 units through 2045, citing persistent supply chain constraints and engine availability issues. The revised forecast projects a global passenger fleet of over 50,000 aircraft by 2045, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.2%. The forecast was reported by The Aviation Hub.

Source | Originally Published: October 13, 2026

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