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Cirium Forecasts 43,000 Aircraft Deliveries Through 2045

October 13, 2026

2 min read

Key Takeaways

Cirium forecasts 43,000 aircraft deliveries worth $3.2 trillion through 2045.
Production constraints temper the long-term delivery outlook.
The global passenger fleet is expected to reach 50,000 aircraft by 2045.
Single-aisle jets represent 76% of modelled passenger fleet allocation.

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Strategic Implications

This forecast may indicate a shift in the aviation industry's growth trajectory, with production constraints and supply chain resilience becoming critical factors. The continued dominance of Airbus and Boeing suggests a stable market, but the rise of Asian markets could signal future changes in the competitive landscape.

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What Happened

Global Commercial Fleet Growth Moderated By Production Constraints

Cirium has released its annual Fleet Forecast, predicting 43,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft deliveries worth $3.2 trillion between 2026 and 2045. The forecast reflects a moderation in the long-term delivery outlook due to production constraints and supply chain bottlenecks. The global passenger fleet is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 3.2%, with single-aisle jets dominating the market. According to Cirium, the industry’s ability to deliver will depend on its capacity to address these challenges, as reported by American Journal of Transportation.

Source | Originally Published: October 13, 2026

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