• Business jet deliveries forecast to rise from 751 units in 2026 to 819 in 2029.
• Six-OEM market shows divergent backlog trends, with Bombardier and Gulfstream building backlog.
• Forecast methodology departs from standard industry practice, accounting for cyclicality and segment-specific historical decline magnitudes.
• Fractional and charter operator demand dominates forward orders, concentrating market risk.

This forecast may indicate a shift in business jet demand, with Bombardier and Gulfstream poised for growth, while Textron and Embraer focus on revenue growth through pricing and mix. The concentration of forward orders in fractional programs suggests a potential risk to residual values and collateral value, which could impact financiers and lessors.