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Airbus Forecasts Record Aircraft Replacement Wave

October 20, 2026

2 min read

Key Takeaways

Airbus forecasts 42,060 new passenger aircraft deliveries by 2045.
19,820 aircraft will replace existing jets, while 22,240 support fleet growth.
Replacement accounts for 47% of projected deliveries, up from 44% previously.
Global passenger fleet to increase from 23,310 to 45,550 aircraft by 2045.

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Strategic Implications

This forecast may indicate a significant shift in the aviation industry towards replacement of aging fleets, which could benefit manufacturers like Airbus. The increased demand for new aircraft suggests a growing need for fuel-efficient and environmentally friendly options, which could drive innovation in the sector.

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What Happened

Post-Covid Fleet Aging Drives Demand For New Jets

Airbus has released its Global Market Forecast, predicting a record replacement cycle for aircraft over the next two decades. The manufacturer expects almost half of new passenger aircraft deliveries to replace existing jets, with 19,820 replacements and 22,240 new aircraft supporting fleet growth. This forecast is driven by post-Covid fleet aging, with aircraft remaining in service longer due to production delays and airline delivery issues. According to Air Data News, the global passenger fleet is expected to increase from 23,310 to 45,550 aircraft by 2045, with passenger traffic growing by an average of 3.9% annually.

Source | Originally Published: October 20, 2026

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