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1,860 New Aircraft Deliveries Projected for 2027

October 26, 2026

2 min read

Key Takeaways

Aviation Week forecasts 1,860 new-aircraft deliveries in 2027.
Rising deliveries may shift value away from aftermarket earnings.
Near-term MRO demand remains strong despite medium-term uncertainty.

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Strategic Implications

The forecast may indicate a shift in value from aftermarket earnings to new aircraft deliveries, which could favor manufacturers over aftermarket businesses. The medium-term growth outlook for maintenance providers suggests a slower pace than historical norms, which could impact the commercial aftermarket industry.

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What Happened

Commercial Aftermarket Boom Nears End Amid Rising Deliveries

Aviation Week’s 2027 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast projects 1,860 new-aircraft deliveries in 2027, exceeding the 1,792 delivered in 2018. Rising deliveries and high fuel prices are driving fleet replacement and growth, with about 600 aircraft retirements expected this year. Near-term MRO demand remains strong, but uncertainty over fuel prices and Middle East turmoil makes the medium term hard to call. According to Aviation Week, the forecast suggests a delivery-led replacement cycle that may favor manufacturers over aftermarket businesses.

Source | Originally Published: October 26, 2026

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