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Aviation Emissions to Rise 87% by 2050

September 15, 2026

2 min read

Key Takeaways

Aviation emissions expected to rise 87% by 2050.
Emissions to increase from 843 million tonnes to 1.58 billion tonnes.
Fleet emissions intensity to fall by 20% despite rising demand.
Global passenger fleet to almost double in size by 2050.

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Strategic Implications

This forecast may indicate significant challenges for the aviation industry in meeting decarbonization goals. The expected rise in emissions suggests that efficiency gains from fleet renewal may be insufficient to offset growing demand, which could lead to increased pressure for the adoption of sustainable aviation fuels and other emissions reduction measures.

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What Happened

IBA Forecasts Significant Increase in Commercial Aviation Emissions

A new report from IBA forecasts an 87% rise in gross aviation emissions by 2050, despite significant improvements in aircraft efficiency. The report suggests that annual tailpipe emissions will increase from around 843 million tonnes of CO₂ in 2025 to 1.58 billion tonnes by 2050, with the global commercial passenger fleet expected to almost double in size. According to IBA’s analysis, achieving the aviation industry’s longer-term decarbonisation goals will require wider adoption of sustainable aviation fuels, further operational improvements, and supportive policy measures. This forecast was reported by an unknown source.

Source | Originally Published: September 15, 2026

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