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Airlines Resilient Amid Shift From Gulf Hubs

June 6, 2026

2 min read

Key Takeaways

Airlines in Africa and Middle East see demand decline since Iran war.
IATA forecasts 3.2-3.9% passenger growth for African carriers by 2050.
Middle East airlines expect 2.5-3.5% growth in the same period.
Jet fuel costs are higher in Africa than elsewhere.

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Strategic Implications

The shift away from Gulf hubs may indicate a long-term change in air travel patterns, which could benefit African carriers. The resilience of airlines in the face of conflict suggests a strong ability to adapt, which may be crucial for future success in the region.

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What Happened

Middle East Conflict Impacts Air Travel Demand

The war in the Middle East has led to a significant decline in demand for air travel in the region, with Middle East carriers seeing a 46.6% drop in passenger demand in April. However, African carriers reported a 2.8% year-on-year increase in total demand for April, despite a huge drop compared to March’s demand growth. IATA forecasts strong long-term growth for both regions, with African carriers expected to see 3.2-3.9% passenger growth by 2050. The war’s impact on air travel demand was immediate and tangible, but airlines, governments, and air navigation service providers responded with coordination and flexibility to maintain connectivity. This article was first reported by Aviation Week.

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