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US-Iran War May Keep Christmas Prices High

April 20, 2026

2 min read

Key Takeaways

US-Iran war may disrupt supply chains for up to five months.
Transport costs may not return to pre-conflict levels until mid-July.
Retailers are working to protect consumers from price rises.
Oil prices have topped $100 a barrel during the conflict.

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Strategic Implications

The US-Iran war supply chain shock may indicate a prolonged period of instability in global trade, which could have significant implications for retailers and consumers alike. This disruption suggests that retailers may need to adapt their supply chain strategies to mitigate the impact of such events, which could lead to increased costs and prices for shoppers.

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What Happened

Supply Chain Disruptions Could Last Five Months

The US-Iran war has caused significant disruptions to global supply chains, with logistics specialist Advanced Supply Chain warning that transport costs may not return to pre-conflict levels until at least mid-July. This timing could prove critical for retailers, as many will already be placing Christmas orders and absorbing elevated freight and supply chain costs. According to Advanced Supply Chain, reopening the Strait of Hormuz will not bring an instant reset, with delayed vessels, stranded tankers, and disrupted schedules still needing to be cleared. The warning was first reported by Retail Gazette.

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