US & Ukraine Peace Deal Hinges on Security Guarantees: Analysis
As diplomatic efforts intensify between the United States, Ukraine, and Russia, security guarantees have become the fulcrum upon which peace negotiations now turn. Multiple reports confirmed Tuesday that Ukraine and the US have reached a tentative agreement framework, marking significant progress after weeks of high-stakes negotiations. However, experts caution that the architecture of these security commitments will ultimately determine whether any peace deal proves durable or merely postpones future conflict.
The Trump administration’s initial 28-point proposal drew widespread criticism for heavily favoring Russian demands, including territorial concessions and NATO membership exclusion for Ukraine. The revised 19-point plan incorporates greater Ukrainian interests, though substantial disagreements persist. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt acknowledged that “delicate, but not insurmountable, details” remain unresolved, requiring further discussions among all parties.
Daniel Fried, former US Ambassador to Poland and Assistant Secretary of State for Europe, characterized the initial draft as “a hot mess” but expressed cautious optimism about an emerging sustainable framework. However, he emphasized that security guarantees demand credibility—particularly since Putin will inevitably pressure the administration to weaken protective provisions.
The central question preoccupies analysts: What does security look like for Ukraine outside NATO? Myroslava Gongadze, a Ukraine fellow at the Atlantic Council, stressed that vague guarantees risk “setting up Ukraine for another crisis.” Both US and European commitments must include clear accountability mechanisms and binding enforcement provisions.
Leslie Shedd, another Atlantic Council analyst, noted that security guarantees may require Senate ratification, and congressional support—particularly bipartisan backing—would strengthen their credibility. She predicted significant cross-aisle support, as frustration with Russian aggression transcends party lines.
The Financial Times reported the tentative deal would cap Ukraine’s military at 800,000 personnel, though questions linger about sustainability outside active combat. Meanwhile, Army Secretary Dan Driscoll has emerged as an unexpected key player, personally delivering proposals and participating in multilateral negotiations—an unconventional role that underscores the administration’s diplomatic intensity.
As negotiations continue, the stakes remain extraordinarily high. Security guarantees will ultimately determine whether any agreement provides genuine protection or merely creates a false peace.
Source ID: SRCE-2025-1764102555216-952