As the Trump administration and Ukraine inch toward a tentative peace agreement with Russia, security guarantees have emerged as the central issue in ongoing negotiations. Analysts from the Atlantic Council emphasize that any deal excluding NATO membership must include credible, enforceable protections from both the US and Europe. With Army Secretary Dan Driscoll playing an unprecedented diplomatic role, the talks represent a potential turning point in the conflict—though significant questions remain about Moscow’s willingness to accept terms that include meaningful Ukrainian interests.